tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-57923392011-12-14T22:05:37.223-05:00Frequent updates of interest to gold and silver investorsHalf Sigmanoreply@blogger.comBlogger1511100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1136938636862194502006-01-10T19:15:00.001-05:002008-10-18T17:13:14.801-04:00

I am blogging about investing again! Please visit my new Contrarian Investing Blog where I will write about not only gold and silver but a whole host of topics related to contrarian investing.

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1114198840005867482005-04-22T15:39:00.000-04:002005-04-22T16:04:34.306-04:00

It's been almost a year since my last post. How about that? Just wanted to complain about DROOY tanking. I sure which I had sold that back when it was $5/share. Today it's at $0.79/share. Ouch! As you are probably aware, the problem is that the price of gold in South African Rand isn't so high as the price of gold in U.S. Dollars.

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1091278091156350342004-07-31T08:45:00.000-04:002004-07-31T08:48:11.156-04:00

If you're going to trade gold and silver stocks, you need a stock brokerage firm. Check out my comparison of Fidelity vs. Ameritrade at my other blog. * * * And how about those oil prices? People who heeded my advice to buy oil and gas stocks in addition to gold and silver stocks have made some good money. Don't sell yet.

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1090681320256730982004-07-24T10:59:00.000-04:002004-07-24T11:02:00.256-04:00

Today I posted at my other blog, Wall Street and the illusion of profits. If you invest in the stock market, you'll find it worth reading.

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1090209435556638622004-07-18T23:55:00.000-04:002004-07-18T23:57:15.556-04:00

Still haven't had the initiative to post much here. DROOY is only at $2.50. I wish I had sold that dog at the peak two years ago. But it's still highly leveraged to gold, so if gold ever takes off, DROOY should take off with it. THEN I can sell it.

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1088351549762993102004-06-27T11:51:00.000-04:002004-06-27T11:52:29.763-04:00

In my other blog I posted an essay entitled Libertarians and the gold standard.

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1088264114571450092004-06-26T11:34:00.000-04:002004-06-26T11:35:14.573-04:00

Hello fellow gold investors! I'm still alive, and I haven't yet abandoned precious metals, nor blogging.

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1084989727155254342004-05-19T14:02:00.000-04:002004-05-19T14:02:07.156-04:00

Bill Fleckenstein, in his Contrarian Chronicles column, is bullish on silver. He writes: Meanwhile, the precious metals have endured a brutality of their own, vis-à-vis a recent decline of some 30% in the price of silver. Though it's not possible to know where the bottom lies, my contacts in the dealer market say there has now been a good deal of short-selling by funds in precious metals.

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1082575036491379672004-04-21T15:17:00.000-04:002004-04-21T15:21:41.153-04:00

I know I haven't posted to this blog in a long time (sorry, sorry, sorry, I feel so bad for the loyal readers who used to come here), but Bill Fleckenstein's comment in his weekly Contrarian Chronicles, gave me a reason for posting. He wrote, "Because I was fortunate enough to have planned ahead, via my purchase of gold puts a while back, I was able to buy this plunge without incurring a great

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1077251153417170492004-02-19T23:25:00.000-05:002004-02-19T23:27:50.030-05:00

In Mahendra's latest update, he recommends oil and natural gas. Maybe he's been reading my blogs! Also, he predicts that next week silver will rise past $7/oz. I sure hope he's right.

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1077169532829032122004-02-19T00:45:00.000-05:002004-02-19T00:59:14.340-05:00

It seems like the less attention I give the Gold and Silver Blog, the more gold and silver keep going up. Especially silver. On CNBC, they are talking more and more about gold. It used to be that gold was never mentioned, but now the average investor is hearing about it, which means there are more potental buyers for precious metals and for companies that mine it. My favorite astrologer

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1075706075050189702004-02-02T02:14:00.000-05:002004-02-02T02:16:54.670-05:00

Very worthwhile Contrarian Chronicles by Bill Fleckenstein this week. First he says that he's not selling any Pan American Silver (NASDAQ: PAAS), and he's a director of the company so that goes for something. Second he paints a very bullish picture for gold based on the possibility that Japan will be increasing its gold reserves.

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1075387197061527722004-01-29T09:39:00.000-05:002004-01-29T09:42:15.700-05:00

From ealier this week, and article at Mineweb about how Durban Roodepoort Deep (NASDAQ: DROOY) is suing that crook Roger Kebble for 35 million rand (see DRD/Kebble rumble to resume). * * * Also, a story about how DRD is buying a 1.4% stake in internet company GoldMoney.com, and Ian Murray, DRD's chief executive, says tht DRD is likely to increase its tatke to 14.3% in March (see DRD, Turk

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1075179040408797302004-01-26T23:50:00.000-05:002004-01-26T23:52:40.186-05:00

There's an article in The New York Times about how the strong Rand is hurting the profits of South African miners (see Rising Rand Takes a Toll on Gold Earnings). As has been pointed out many times before in this blog, the price of gold in Rand isn't so high. "It's not so much that the rand-gold prices are low, it's more the uncertainly about where the rand is going," said Ilja

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1075056566337520792004-01-25T13:49:00.000-05:002004-01-25T13:50:56.966-05:00

An article about gold mining stocks appears in this Sunday's New York Times (see As Gold Surges, Many Mining Stocks Gain Favor). The article is surprisingly bullish on gold too! When gold was trading at rock bottom prices everyone said to avoid it, but now that the price is rising, more people are jumping on the bandwagon. Mr. McKissick notes that the basic-materials component of the

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1074879980356101262004-01-23T12:46:00.000-05:002004-01-23T12:47:48.983-05:00

Fujifilm announces it's continuing commitment to film. Fujifilm is defying current trends in the photography industry by announcing significant investment in film camera technology in 2004, and by adding a raft of new models to its compact film camera range - both APS and 35mm. Despite pressure on the conventional camera market, and with some manufacturers consolidating their R&D

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1074358138002091292004-01-17T11:48:00.000-05:002004-01-17T11:51:39.780-05:00

Mahendra's 2004 predictions Mahendra has released his stunning financial predictions for 2004, and they agree with all of my investment philosophies, so Mahendra must be a genius! (See Where to invest in year 2004?...Silver..oil..Yen.. ) (1) Silver: He says silver will take off this year. Many people in the world investor community have closely been following my gold predictions.

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1074195394423668862004-01-15T14:36:00.000-05:002004-01-15T14:37:55.513-05:00

Today is certainly a painful day for gold investors. But remember, nothing ever goes up every single day. The biggest multi-year bull markets have days where there are big pullbacks. Conspiracy theorists will no doubt notice that J.P.Morgan Chase announced a big mega-merger with Bank One. And the same day, the price of gold tanks. Is there a mysterious connection?

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1073672532382915102004-01-09T13:22:00.000-05:002004-01-09T13:24:38.390-05:00

StockPickReport.com issued a "strong sell" recommendation on Durban Roodepoort Deep (NASDAQ: DROOY) today. Good thing I don't listen to such silly nonsense; DROOY is up big today. Link to article.

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1073400376418256112004-01-06T09:46:00.000-05:002004-01-06T09:55:16.890-05:00

This Street.com article, by James Altucher, recommends investing in Pan American Silver (NASDAQ PAAS) and Apex Silver Mines (AMEX: SIL) (see What Happens if I Die?). He cites the usual rasons: (1) return to precious metals; (2) demand has outpaced production since 1990; (3) U.S. government since mid-2002 a buyer of gold instead of a seller. * * * Durban Roodepoort Deep did well enough

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1073353376174506202004-01-05T20:42:00.000-05:002004-01-05T20:44:27.763-05:00

Wow! What a great day for gold and silver. Why is it soaring today? I have no idea. (See Mineweb: Gold's manic Monday.)

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1073247086684752372004-01-04T15:11:00.000-05:002004-01-04T15:12:37.076-05:00

The Year in Gold and Silver Investing Was 2003 a great year for gold? Not if you were invested in Durban Roodepoort Deep (NASDAQ: DROOY). Durban started the year at $4.05 and ended it at $3.17, a painful decline of 22%. I wish I had sold my Durban way back when it was worth something. However, it has been a great year for silver stocks. Pan American Silver (NASDAQ: PAAS) started the

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1072796672201890132003-12-30T10:04:00.000-05:002003-12-30T10:05:58.763-05:00

Mahendra Sharma is still bullish on gold. He says that if gold crosses above $418 Monday or Tuesday in NY trading, then in the next 10 days it will trade at $432. Mahendra also says Silver will reach $6 this week and he recommends that you buy silver stocks this week. Link to latest prophecy.

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1072714061909510792003-12-29T11:07:00.000-05:002003-12-29T11:12:52.326-05:00

As I write this, gold is again taking out eight year highs, but the dollar is at record lows against the euro, so the gold price reflects a weak dollar, and not genuine gold strength. (See CNN: Gold drifts toward 8-year high.) Silver is doing even better than gold, but I haven't found any news articles to explain it. * * * The new Gold Bullion Securities fund (LSE: GBS) isn't

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1072198589186543832003-12-23T11:51:00.000-05:002003-12-23T11:57:27.013-05:00

There is an article in today's Wall Street Journal about how hedge funds are investing more money into commodities (see Hedge Funds Make Big Bets on Commodities subscription required). But hedge funds -- investment vehicles for the wealthy -- have also been pouring money into commodities this year, adding to demand, helping to drive prices higher and increasing volatility. This speculative

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1072063445782737462003-12-21T21:16:00.000-05:002003-12-23T11:57:50.840-05:00

Interesting artiicle at Mineweb about how British investors prefer pure gold stocks to diversified ones (see AIM investors want pure gold). Sounds smart to me. Investors can create their own diversification by buying shares of different companies in different industries. Management usually wants diversification because it makes their own jobs more secure, not because it benefits shareholders

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1071712419869573772003-12-17T20:53:00.000-05:002003-12-17T20:55:06.153-05:00

Durban Roodepoort Deep (NASDAQ: DROOY) announced today the issuance of a free call option on 10.2 million shares to South Africa's Investec Bank. There is some excellent analysis to be found at an article on Mineweb: DRD to end gold-swap nightmare. The article suggests that DRD wishes to use the money from the new shares to buy out it's electricity hedge. That's what DRD means by "balance

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1071501266147638372003-12-15T10:14:00.000-05:002003-12-15T10:15:37.826-05:00

The capture of Saddam Hussein is blamed for the dip in gold prices (see CBS Marketwatch: Gold prices tumble on Saddam news). I personally see no reason why the capture of Saddam has anything to do with the price of gold. * * * High gold and oil prices are benefitting Russia (see Moscow Times: Gold, Hard Currency Reserves Top $70Bln). Yet now they are worried about their currency getting

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1071238218154558282003-12-12T09:10:00.000-05:002003-12-12T09:11:05.590-05:00

The painful decline in gold stock prices is supposedly due to profit taking (see Mineweb: Global gold stock sell-off intensifies; $10-bn gone) and the seesawing rand (see Reuters: S.Africa stocks see-saw on rand, gold miners suffer). I guess other investors don't have my faith, or whatever it is that keeps me holding on.

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1070984706628193432003-12-09T10:45:00.000-05:002003-12-09T10:46:05.450-05:00

Gold Bullion Securities, Ltd, the exchange traded gold fund, is now trading on the London Stock Exchange (see Reuters: GBS debuts, gives all investors a shot at gold ). This is good news for gold prices, and it will be even better news when a gold fund finally starts trading in the United States. * * * I've received word of a new investment blog, run by Charles Rotburg. You may want to

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1070860738165703252003-12-08T00:18:00.000-05:002003-12-08T00:25:19.043-05:00

Karsten Junge at CurryBlog posted some interesting commentary about gold prices a few days ago. Karsten suggests that central banks may compete to devalue their currency, resulting in what he calls "competitive devaulation", resulting in gold rising because it would be the "last man standing". Karsten is a German blogger who focuses on financial markets, with a mostly contrarian viewpoint

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1070773769201835652003-12-07T00:09:00.000-05:002003-12-07T00:10:55.623-05:00

Australian investment bank RFC Capital says that gold may be headed to US $1000/oz (see Mineweb: Gold headed for US$1,000/oz?). I guess that with the $400/oz resistance taken out, there's no stopping it. The same article also mentions the prediction of Newmont Mining Corp's (NYSE: NEM) Pierre Lassonde, but he predicted a more boring price of $450/oz. * * * And talking about

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1070598960327434702003-12-04T23:36:00.000-05:002003-12-04T23:36:58.670-05:00

It's snowing in Washington, DC right now! Great news for natural gas prices!

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1070562364552144542003-12-04T13:26:00.000-05:002003-12-04T13:33:59.030-05:00

An extremely interesting article about Barrick Gold's (NYSE: ABX) hedging strategy (or lack thereof) appears in today's Globe and Mail (see Alas, poor Barrick. Hedges can't survive gold's rise). Barrick has been the biggest hedger in the gold indusry, and was much hated by goldbugs because of it. The article speculates about why Barrick and its chairman Peter Munk had an about face on this

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1070324143213096352003-12-01T19:15:00.000-05:002003-12-01T19:17:42.293-05:00

By now you probably know that gold finally closed in New York above $400/oz. Gold stocks did well today. Unfortunately, a great deal of the price rise had to do with the weak dollar and not gold being stronger. The South African Rand is now quoted at 6.34 to the dollar, which is not so good for S.A. gold mining companies. * * * Ian Cockerill, chief executive of South Africa's Gold

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1070239694478491662003-11-30T19:48:00.000-05:002003-11-30T20:03:05.403-05:00

India's gold consumption is up 16%, despite the high gold prices (see VOANews.com: India's Gold Consumption Continues to Rise). The wedding season is said to be busy. * * * The World Gold council is being sued for $450,000 in damages (see Mineweb: WGC gold fund hits another legal trip wire.) "Gemini Diversified Holdings, which is owned by finance raconteur and one-time prodigy pianist,

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1069955118162767602003-11-27T12:34:00.000-05:002003-11-30T19:57:24.593-05:00

Gold was supposedly up yesterday on scares that there was a strange smell in the NY Subways, but I find this explanation highly unlikely because I was riding the NY Subways yesterday, and no one knew about this smell. It certainly wasn't news in New York City. * * * News from South Africa is that Gold Fields (NYSE: GFI) announced a ground breaking empowerment deal. "Mvela Gold, a

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1069768570825421962003-11-25T06:56:00.000-05:002003-11-25T09:01:31.293-05:00

In an article at the Motley Fool about gold, gold investing is discouraged with the following parapgraph: From Jeremy Siegel's seminal book, Stocks For the Long Run, here's how a single dollar invested in various vehicles would have fared from 1802 to 2001 (yes, just about 200 years!): stocks, $600,000; bonds, $1,000; bills, $300; gold, $0.98. (These numbers are adjusted for inflation.)

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1069705409321607602003-11-24T07:03:00.000-05:002003-11-24T15:24:57.483-05:00

Leonard Kaplan has some negative comments about silver in his most recent Gold Market Commentary posted today (see Quasimodos Article). He says: One comment regarding silver and then on to the Commitment of Traders reports. Silver warehouse stocks at the Comex have risen sharply over the last two months, now approaching 120 million ounces, even as the price has risen. This bears evidence

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1069618248740991742003-11-23T15:10:00.000-05:002003-11-23T16:44:57.326-05:00

Hedging no longer creates shareholder value and over the next decade, Barrick (NYSE: ABX) won't do any more hedging, Chairman Peter Munk said at a gold conference in London. CBS Marketwatch: Gold ends up on Barrick news, but down $2 for the week Interesting news indeed. Barrick is blamed in goldbug circles for being involved in a conspiracy to keep down the price of gold, so it's

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1069465844658504452003-11-21T20:50:00.000-05:002003-11-21T20:52:01.186-05:00

Mahendra predicts that gold will trade above $400 today (he missed that) or Monday. He's been predicting $400 for a long time. He also says his new book of prophecies for 2004 will be printed soon. He really ought to give me a free copy considering how much publicity I give him. (See Get ready for gold above $400 and my book.)

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1069416103029766832003-11-21T07:01:00.000-05:002003-11-21T20:52:27.153-05:00

At Mineweb, an article with more detail about Gold Fields' St. Ives operation in Australia (see Gold Fields commits A$125m to Oz gold). * * * More stuff blowing up again in the world this morning, this time in Iraq, but so far no effect on the gold price.

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1069328284276859632003-11-20T06:38:00.000-05:002003-11-20T06:39:13.403-05:00

Gold continues to flirt with $400, but I don't have anything else to say about that right now. Maybe the terrorist bombings in Turkey this morning will help the Gold price today. * * * Gold Fields reports good news at its St Ives mine in Australia (see Dow Jones: Gold Fields/Expansion: Mine Life Could Be 9 Years). Gold Fields will build a new ore processing facility to increase

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1069213101577014792003-11-18T22:38:00.000-05:002003-11-18T22:43:46.966-05:00

$400 CNN.com: Gold soars above $400 * * * Individual investors in China traded gold today for the first time since 1949 (see China Daily: Bank of China starts gold trading ). The hope for gold investors is that demand for gold from Chinese investors will help push up the price.

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1069154713408564212003-11-18T06:25:00.000-05:002003-11-18T06:25:36.793-05:00

An editorial in Business Report is highly critical of Gold Fields' involvement in Tibet (see Gold Fields should pull out of Tibet). The editorial says that the mining of gold in Tibet will harm the environment, may involve forced or prison labor, and will be done without the genuine consent of the Tibetan people whose right to self-determination is continuously violated by the Chinese.

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1069123419496283552003-11-17T21:43:00.000-05:002003-11-17T21:44:38.920-05:00

We came within 10 cents of $400, but gold retreated because funds "got antsy" and "bailed out" (see Reuters: COMEX gold retreats, $400 toyed with, not tasted ). Maybe next time. * * * The prophet and astrologer Mahendra, always the gold bull, predicts that a gold bull run could start tomorrow (see Gold prediction). "Why I am saying tomorrow because I would like Mars to join Jupiter in

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1069070438540397712003-11-17T07:00:00.000-05:002003-11-17T07:01:22.996-05:00

They were talking about gold all morning on Wakeup Call on CNBC, and this is pretty bullish for gold prices. If Joe Stupid Investor ever got it into his head that gold stocks were as good of an investment as tech stocks, there would be an an incredible surge in gold and gold stock prices like we've never seen before.

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1069039816234799352003-11-16T22:30:00.000-05:002003-11-16T22:32:18.373-05:00

I refer you to my other blog, The Calico Cat, for commentary on an interesting investment opportunity in nuclear power that may be available next year.

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1069039291083124032003-11-16T22:21:00.000-05:002003-11-16T22:27:49.686-05:00

Bill Fleckenstein and the post-bubble economy In his weekly Contrarian Chronicles column at MSN, Bill Fleckenstein doesn't say anything about gold, but he is bearish, as usual, on the economy as a whole. Bill disagrees with the post-bubble loose money policy. He writes: The bottom line is, we are in a box because we had a mania. Post-mania, the best possible behavior would have been

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-106900854329907802003-11-16T13:49:00.000-05:002003-11-16T13:52:48.716-05:00

Is gold money? At Mineweb, today, there's an opinion article penned by Philip M. Spicer, chairman of the Central Gold Fund of China (see Corruption & Gold). Philip writes: Currency is not money. A definition of money is that which is both a store of value and a medium of exchange. Currencies of today are not stores of value. Well, I have to disagree with that assessment. The

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1068920683583688822003-11-15T13:24:00.000-05:002003-11-15T13:25:23.390-05:00

There doesn’t seem to be anything about gold in this weekend’s Barron’s. But interesting reading is to be found in the Up and Down Wall Street (subscription required to view link) column, in which Randall Forsyth sees consumer spending fizzling out. He points out that mortgage refinancing is down 80% since the summer, and he also writes: Another model using what [HSBC economist Ian]

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1068897541761142512003-11-15T06:59:00.000-05:002003-11-15T06:59:21.826-05:00

On Wednesday, the trading day before the Avgold merger with Harmony (NYSE: HMY) was announced, Avgold rose 9.2% on unusually heavy volume. This is being investigated by the JSE. (See JSE To Probe Avgold Share Trading .) Wednesday was an especially good day for ALL gold stocks, however, so it's really hard to say that there were any shenanigans going on just because Avgold's stock was up.

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1068733513485669662003-11-13T07:25:00.000-05:002003-11-16T22:22:14.890-05:00

Harmony Merges I don't own any Harmony (NYSE: HMY), but this is pretty big news for those who do, or for South African gold mining in general (see Reuters: S.Africans create major black-owned mining firm). Harmony is merging with two other companies, Anglovaal Mining Limited and African Rainbow Minerals. At this moment I dont' understand the full implications of the merger for Harmony

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1068612522799160582003-11-11T23:48:00.000-05:002003-11-11T23:54:07.443-05:00

Gold Fields (NYSE: GFI) is seeking to step up its investments in China. Gold fields would like to acquire a majority stake and some operational control over one or more gold mining projects there. (See Business Report: Gold Fields to build up its interests in China.)

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1068523512032764812003-11-10T23:05:00.000-05:002003-11-10T23:05:28.150-05:00

De-hedging slowed in the previous quarter. In the quarter ending September 2003, gold producers reduced their hedge positions by 2.3 million ounces, which is a 42.5% drop from the quarter ending June 2003, when producers bought back 4 million ounces. (See Mineweb: Dehedging slows, raises gold fears.) My thought here is that this is a natural reaction to the rising gold price. Producers

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1068422259896500612003-11-09T18:57:00.000-05:002003-11-09T19:11:49.936-05:00

In India, non-oil imports are up 28% in the April to June 2003 period as compared to the same period in 2002, but a good chunk of this increase is likely accounted for by increases in gold and silver being imported. Gold and silver imports are up 99.9% for that period. (See Gold-plated import surge clouds recovery hopes.) * * * Northern Dynasty Minerals (OTCBB:NDMLF, TSXV:NDM ) reports

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1068329901260395132003-11-08T17:18:00.000-05:002003-11-08T17:22:59.343-05:00

At Barron's this weekend is an essay adapted from Jim Rogers' book Adventure Capitalist (see The New Bull Market - subscription required). Jim says that we are entering a new bull marked in commodities. We now face a classic change in commodities markets. Raw materials supplies and demands are out of whack again, and inventories are down. Commodities will do well for years to come, while

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1068204750649724392003-11-07T06:32:00.000-05:002003-11-07T06:36:17.663-05:00

I'm somewhat confused about all the great economic news we've been reading about lately. I was convinced we were suffering a multi-year economic hangover from the bull market of the late 1990s, and that it would be years before the economy recovered. But according to all the figures, things are booming. Doesn't make any sense. Eventually the U.S. housing market has to crash and bring the

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1068120574110792962003-11-06T07:09:00.000-05:002003-11-06T07:09:44.213-05:00

An article from Business Day speculates that the South African Reseve Bank will cut interest rates again next month (see allAfrica.com: South Africa: Reserve Bank Upbeat On Inflation, Growth). This may help lower the rand price, which would be welcome news for South African mining companies.

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1068091023552031612003-11-05T22:57:00.000-05:002003-11-05T22:57:27.140-05:00

The exchange traded gold fund coming to the U.S. in 2004 could absorb over three million ounces of gold, according to Steve Matthews of Tudor Investment Corporation (see Mineweb: High hopes for US gold ETF). The coming ETF is definitely a bullish sign for gold.

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1068033259151732392003-11-05T06:54:00.000-05:002003-11-05T06:54:58.143-05:00

Gold Fields has also rasied some more money with a new share placement, to the tune of $195 million (see Dow Jones: Gold Fields Raises $195 Million Through Private Placement). Seems that companies want to take advantage of the high stock prices right now to grab a hold of some cash. * * * Barry Davison, chairman of Anglo American Platinum and also president of the South African Chamber

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1068005631634320682003-11-04T23:13:00.000-05:002003-11-04T23:13:50.140-05:00

Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM) announced that it will be offering 20 million shares to the public. With the share price at $43.31, that's $866 million dollars. Reuters quotes an unnamed mining analyst who says that "the mining giant could well be readying to pounce on a peer, despite Newmont's public statements recently that it has its hands full with its own development projects." (See Newmont

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1067945893113776222003-11-04T06:38:00.000-05:002003-11-04T06:42:29.666-05:00

The case against Brett Kebble, the son of Roger Kebble, continues in South Africa. The court refused to dismiss the charges against him. Kebble says that the charges against him are part of a conspiracy by National Director of Public Prosecutions, Bulelani Ngcuka, and empowerment businessman Mzi Khumalo. (See Kebble to appeal new judgement.) I'm not really sure who I believe.

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1067904533499540742003-11-03T19:08:00.000-05:002003-11-03T19:22:50.123-05:00

Thom Calandra's Stockwatch column at CBS Marketwatch has some interesting quotes about gold from the New Orleans counter-trend conference (see Follow these lines from New Orleans). For example: "Gold and gold stocks are very thin markets," said Adrian Day, a Maryland asset manager and newsletter writer who specializes in precious metals and in alternative investments. ... "The broad market

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1067861074608927062003-11-03T07:04:00.000-05:002003-11-03T07:04:33.396-05:00

If you like to read articles with fancy price charts, check out Brian Blooms contribution to the Gold Eagle (The US$ Riddle). Brian says the charts say that gold could go to $524/oz, but he also says that this prognostication conflicts with his US$ chart, so it's a big riddle.

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1067724236358028932003-11-01T17:03:00.000-05:002003-11-01T17:04:16.896-05:00

There doesn't seem to be anything about gold in this week's Barron's, but the interview with Jeremy Grantham was interesting. Jeremy says: The simple story is the market is overpriced and will go to a trendline P/E, which we now believe is 16 times based on research that shows earnings tend to be overstated over time because assets tend to be underdepreciated during times of technological

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1067653352561741572003-10-31T21:22:00.000-05:002003-10-31T21:22:31.490-05:00

Mahendra, the astrologer and prophet, has issued more predictions today. He said that gold went down on Thursday because of the strong growth figures, but he still predicts that gold will reach $400 by the end of next week. I sure hope so. I wish he'd also make a prediction about the Rand, because that strong Rand is killing my Durban Roodepoort Deep stock. Also, he says next week will

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1067573754369392572003-10-30T23:15:00.000-05:002003-10-30T23:20:39.350-05:00

Very interesting article at Mineweb featuring an interview with Bill Murphy (see Gold conspiracy collapse is just a matter of time - Murphy). Mineweb asks: "You were among those who predicted that once gold rose much above $300 per ounce, there would be a short covering panic to send gold soaring. Similarly, you forecast that JP Morgan was imminently close to collapse because of reckless

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1067485807959148642003-10-29T22:50:00.000-05:002003-10-29T22:57:00.926-05:00

Mahendra has issued some new predictions. He says gold will be $400 by next weekend. Yay! I can't wait. He also thinks that the fires in California portend bad things for the U.S. He says "I have seen in news that many house burn, that is clear indications of insecurity, or small kind of attack or big accident in USA or against USA interest." I have personally been wondering if these

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1067426857117048122003-10-29T06:27:00.000-05:002003-10-29T06:37:32.930-05:00

Reuters reports on a Merril Lynch research note about how the strong Canadian dollar is hurting the earnings of Canadian gold mining firms (see Merrill forecasts gold miners to feel C$ squeeze). * * * The board of directors of Ashanti recommends the Anglogold buyout, and the Government of Ghana has announced its support (see Mineweb: AngloGold bags Ashanti). As those who read my blog know,

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1067401975758054802003-10-28T23:32:00.000-05:002003-10-28T23:36:57.143-05:00

JP Morgan upgraded Harmony Gold from Netural to Overweight. I thought JP Morgan was the company that hated gold and wanted everything gold to go down? * * * Mahendra Sharma hasn't been able to give us any predictions so far this week because of "negative planetary combinations". I hope that the planets get back into alignment soon so we can receive more wisdom from Kenya. I wonder if

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1067312612632038062003-10-27T22:43:00.000-05:002003-10-27T22:43:31.696-05:00

Bill Fleckenstein doesnt have anything to say about gold or silver in his weekly Contrarian Chronicles column, but he's still bearish on the market in general (no surprise there). * * * Unilke Durban Roodepoort Deep, Harmony reported good earnings despite the strong Rand (see Mineweb: Harmony living with strong rand).

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1067224432553738442003-10-26T22:13:00.000-05:002003-10-26T22:36:40.103-05:00

It was obviously very frustrating on Friday for Durban Roodepoort Deep stockholders when ever other gold stock was up and DRD was down 18 cents. Maybe it was the article from Friday at Business Report, Drastic cost cuts may not stem losses at DRD mines, that hurt the stock price. But an article at Gold-Eagle, Stealth Wealth, promises that DRD stock is going to blast off. I don't understand

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1067135834253476882003-10-25T22:37:00.000-04:002003-10-25T22:38:30.676-04:00

This weekend's Barron's features an interview with Warren Buffett. I had hoped that Buffett might have had something to say about silver, because Buffett allegedly owns a big position in silver bullion, but there was nothing about precious metals at all. * * * I saw the new $20 for the first time yesterday, it doesn't really look that different than the old $20. It's pretty silly how

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1066994458889534472003-10-24T07:20:00.000-04:002003-10-24T07:21:19.126-04:00

Randgold Resources increased its offer for Ashanti once again (see Randgold Resources Increases Offer For Ashanti). But my guess here is that Randgold isn't going to get it. It's not really an "offer" at all if Ashanti shareholders retain 72.6% of the enlarged business.

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1066950261500702892003-10-23T19:04:00.000-04:002003-10-24T07:21:13.520-04:00

An article at CNN/MONEY asks Is gold headed for $400?. Normally I don't post links to silly articles that contain worthless speculation on future gold prices, but in this case the story is that the article is published. More of these articles could create investor interest in gold that would lead to significant demand for gold and gold mining stocks. * * * Mineweb has an article up

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1066905634715196142003-10-23T06:40:00.000-04:002003-10-23T06:48:56.576-04:00

"South African gold miner Durban Roodepoort Deep (DRD) (DURJ.J) unveiled on Thursday a headline loss per share of 24.4 cents in the three months to end-September versus a profit of 54.2 cents the previous quarter" (see Reuters: UPDATE - S.African DRD sinks to Q1 h'line loss of 24.4 cents). This bad news should come as no surprise to any readers of the Gold and Silver Blog. DRD is down only

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1066867252972987672003-10-22T20:00:00.000-04:002003-10-22T20:02:06.260-04:00

Mahendra Sharma has issued more prophecies today. He claims he accurately predicted weakness in the stock market, but I say he was dead wrong because he predicted a "crash" and all that happened is that the market went down a few points. Mahendra still says that silver will top $6 by the end of 2003 (I sure hope so!) but warns that gold may fall below $368.30, in which case you should not buy

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1066817341716688832003-10-22T06:09:00.000-04:002003-10-22T19:52:00.890-04:00

Canadian company Goldcorp (NYSE:GG, TSX:G) reports its highest earnings ever (see press release). But Retuers warns us that results at South African gold mining companies will be hurt by higher labor costs (see Labour costs to hurt S.African gold mine results).

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1066794390295662882003-10-21T23:46:00.000-04:002003-10-22T19:52:07.016-04:00

Kodak and the future of film is posted at my other blog, The Calico Cat. Because the future of film could have a significant impact on silver prices, I suggest reading it.

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1066744250906771682003-10-21T09:50:00.000-04:002003-10-21T09:50:50.366-04:00

I just sold 42% of my position in Pan American Silver (NASDAQ: PAAS) and used all of the proceeds to buy shares of Apex Silver Mines (AMEX: SIL). With Pan American having risen so much recently, and Apex near its one year lows, I figured this was a good time to diversify my silver holdings. Of course, paying the capital gains tax on the sale of Pan American will be painful come tax time. I

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1066743070603873282003-10-21T07:31:00.000-04:002003-10-21T09:31:53.680-04:00

The Wall Street Journal's Heard on the Street column reports that a group of Kodak shareholders wants the company to undo its plans to move away from film into digital technology (see Investors Seek to Rewind Kodak - subscription required to view article). Their point is basically the exact same point I made when I first heard about the announcement. There is no way that Kodak will be able

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1066734114665589572003-10-21T07:01:00.000-04:002003-10-21T07:02:25.610-04:00

There is speculation that Barrick Gold or Placer Dome might get involved in the bidding for Ashanti Goldfields (see Reuters: Canada gold giants decline comment on Ashanti bid). It's too bad I don't own any Ashanti. * * * Holidays in Asia, such as Diwali and Ramadan, are spurring demand for gold. And then there is the Indian wedding season which lasts until March (see Reuters: Asia

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1066693863613498442003-10-20T19:51:00.000-04:002003-10-20T19:52:04.493-04:00

At the Motley Fool, a website mostly known for its endorsement of internet stocks with sky high PE ratios, we find an endorsement of Apex Silver Mines (AMEX: SIL). "When it all shakes out, the stock, trading near its 52-week low, has the potential for spectacular long-term gains." (See A Silver Opportunity.) The positive plug didn't seem to do anything for the stock price. Up only one cent.

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1066645114921934672003-10-20T06:18:00.000-04:002003-10-20T06:24:33.563-04:00

With the rand being so strong, South African company Gold Fields (NYSE: GFI) is looking abroad to replace gold reserves (see Business Report - Gold Fields looks abroad as strong rand pushes up costs). * * * In his Contrarian Chronicles column from two weeks ago, Bill Fleckenstein announced that he had sold gold. After a week's absence, he's back, with nothing to say about gold, but he

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1066582507553644242003-10-19T12:55:00.000-04:002003-10-19T12:55:57.226-04:00

At my Calico Cat blog, I posted an article entitled Higher corporate profits through lower salaries, which continues the themes of an earlier article I wrote about the "jobless recovery" and the "shrinking middle class."

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1066576966923071152003-10-19T11:22:00.000-04:002003-10-19T11:23:16.750-04:00

The Australian mining industry is male dominated (see MiningNews.net: Mining industry: sexist or just male dominated?). This isn't really all that surprising. You don't expect to find women working in the mines. * * * Harmony Gold is now out of Russia with the sale of its 17% stake of High River Gold (see Mineweb: Harmony out of Russia). This is not to be confused with its sale of

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1066499909478256592003-10-18T13:58:00.000-04:002003-10-18T13:58:28.806-04:00

The world's third largest gold nugget, weighing 500 ounces, was found in Dunolly, Australia's sewerage system (see Herald Sun: Nugget rumours spark gold fever). I guess it's a slow day for gold news if that's all I could come up with...

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1066386076434672052003-10-17T06:21:00.000-04:002003-10-17T06:21:57.486-04:00

An article at Mineweb explains how gold mining companies have many new projects underway, which are profitable at current gold prices, so declining gold production isn't going to cotinue (see Don't count on declining gold production). "If you’re betting on a prolonged or permanent downshift in new gold mine production, the odds are against you. The miners know where years and years of gold

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1066352343250853922003-10-16T20:59:00.000-04:002003-10-16T21:01:02.660-04:00

At my Calico Cat blog, I posted an article entitled Why voters support tax cuts.

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1066299931703981012003-10-16T06:25:00.000-04:002003-10-16T06:26:59.420-04:00

Today's Wall Street Journal reports that George W. Bush will push for free-floating Asian currencies on his seven day trip to the region which begins on Friday. The Democrats say that Bush has abandoned American Factory owners and workers (who can't compete with the dollar being strong). The article says that Chinese officlas have made it clear that they won'd budge on the currency issue,

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1066265755053981272003-10-15T20:55:00.000-04:002003-10-15T20:57:21.333-04:00

Prime Minister of Malaysia, Datuk Seri Dr Matahir Mohmad, urges a rapid adoption of the gold Dinar. "Dr Mahathir said it was immaterial if not all [Organisation of the Islamic Conference] members could work with one another. 'So long as two countries can work together, let's work. Eventually we'll expand and eventually, we'll be able to involve all ... countries,' he added" (see Daily Edge: Dr M:

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1066215297781671872003-10-15T06:54:00.000-04:002003-10-15T07:12:48.790-04:00

Mineweb reports that "[t]he momentum is building for a troika of business, unions and the Minerals and Energy minister, Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, to meet to discuss job losses, as tens of thousands of jobs are threatened by the strong currency" (see Job losses spark summit calls). Hopefully this "troika" will happen and they will agree on something that will increase mining company profitability.

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1066127918310610322003-10-14T06:38:00.000-04:002003-10-14T07:58:29.023-04:00

Durban Roodepoort Deep (NASDAQ: DROOY, ASX: DRD, JSE: DUR) expands further into Australasia with the acquisition of a 20% interest in the Porgera Gold Mine in Papua New Guinea for $73.8 million USD. This breaks down to $52.7 million in cash and $21.1 million of new shares that DRD will issue (see press release). 75% of this mine is owned by Placer Dome. The press releases says that this

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1066080030303831352003-10-13T17:20:00.000-04:002003-10-14T06:00:47.830-04:00

The Bundesbank is considering selling 400 to 600 tons of gold between 2004 and 2009. But this depends upon a change of current German laws, as well as what limits on gold sales will be agreed upon when the central banks meet in the Spring to discuss renewal of the Washington Agreement. Boersen Zeitung reports that the new agreement will likely increase gold sales by 10 to 15% over the current

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1066050992450115212003-10-13T09:16:00.000-04:002003-10-13T17:20:39.063-04:00

*** Prophecy alert! *** The astrologer and prophet Mahendra Sharma predicts that there may be a stock market crash on Friday October 17th or Monday October 20th. (See Major crash is coming in USA stock market on 17th or 20th Oct?? ). An unusually specific prediction from Mahendra: I wonder if I should buy put options? Mahendra also predicts that Ariel Sharon, the prime minister of Israel

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1065998751587073372003-10-12T18:45:00.000-04:002003-10-13T09:45:09.036-04:00

At my other blog, The Calico Cat, I wrote about the possibility that the 34% rise in the U.S. stock market since last October may be indicative of an echo bubble. Click here to read that post.

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1065982169713919502003-10-12T14:09:00.000-04:002003-10-12T14:33:30.153-04:00

South Africa's National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) says that South Africa's mining companies are using the strong rand as an "excuse" to cut jobs (see NUM lambastes rand 'excuse'). If you have been following this blog, you know about the job cuts at Durban Roodepoort Deep, and announced job cuts at Harmony Gold and De Beers. * * * In an interview with Michael Cuggino, the president and

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1065896973423946812003-10-11T14:29:00.000-04:002003-10-11T15:13:10.636-04:00

This weekend's Barron's features an interview with James Turk, the founder of Goldmoney.com (see Midas Touch). For those without access to Barrons, here's a summary of Mr. Turk's points: (1) Gold will reach $400/oz by the end of the year. (2) People will buy gold and sell national currencies when financial uncertainty increases. (3) The Federal Reserve is increasing the money supply

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5792339.post-1065782649526073202003-10-10T06:44:00.000-04:002003-10-10T06:59:02.473-04:00

Wage increases and the higher Rand lead analysts to conclude that South African mining companies are going to report poor results for this quarter (see Mineweb: SA gold facing crunch in Q3). Yesterday, Harmony Gold and De Beers both warned that the high rand price would force them to cut jobs, and the South African Chamber of Mines warned that 70,000 jobs could be lost (see Business Report:

Half Sigmanoreply@blogger.com